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tv   The Real Story With Gretchen Carlson  FOX News  October 12, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm PDT

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we'll have to bring you the skydiver story tomorrow, we promise. we have to run. >> thanks for joining us. bernie sanders set to take the stage in new hampshire right now as the democratic candidates prep for their first debate tomorrow night. plus, students returning after that shooting at an oregon college. they're back in school. how do we keep our schools safe? we'll talk to a teacher who survived the sandy hook school shooting. and forced to testify. remember the domestic violence victim? she's speaking out now from florida. will she ever call the cops again? i'm gretchen carlson. "the real story" starts right now. let's kick it off with an alert because the spotlight turning full force on the democrats this week as the race enters a
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potentially critical phase. welcome to "the real story." bernie sanders is about to address voters at the no labels conference in new hampshire, an event that tries to bridge the divide between the political parties. it's only a prelaud to an even bigger stage about that's going to happen tomorrow night. chief white house correspondent ed henry is live from the site of tomorrow's debate in vegas. i know you love it out there, ed. this is the first time the dems will clash. we're going to have to see if hillary clinton or anyone else has what it takes to become president, right? >> reporter: this is a huge stage for all of them. the republicans have already had two of these debates obviously, the first democratic clash. and on the eave of hillary clinton coming to the wynn las vegas she gets' mixed bag from president obama. he went on cbs' "60 minutes" last night, said he didn't know anything about her private server. he went on to say that this was
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a mistake, that she's going to have to explain it to the american people, though he also defended her a little by saying this was not really a national security issue even though we do not know what is going to happen with this fbi criminal investigation that's playing out. listen to what he had to say. >> i don't think it posed a national security problem. i think that it was a mistake that she's acknowledged, and as a general proposition when we're in these offices, we have to be more sensitive. >> reporter: you have to be more sensitive about how you handle this kind of information. you know what? the public seems to agree. a new predebate cbs news poll shows 71% of registered voters believe it was not appropriate for hillary clinton to have a private e-mail account, private server. what's significant is that's up from march when it was 64% feeling that way. of course, since then she's faced a lot of negative news reports but they's also launched this major counter offensive doing interviews, explaining her side ever the story, yet 71% of
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the public on the eve of this debate thinks she did the wrong thing. >> so let's talk about the experience on the debate stage. hillary hasn't debated in a long time, but then again among the other candidates on the stage it could be a first for all of them. >> reporter: that's right. i've traveled all around with hillary clinton. she's been rusty as a campaigner, having a hard time connecting with voters out on the road. but you're right, bernie sanders is getting huge crowds in boulder, colorado, thousands turning ou ining out. but he's never been on a stage this big, neither has martin o'malley. hillary clinton has been tested, been on the stage did more than 20 debates in 2008 with barack obama. she's had practice but everyone is looking at the guy not here, vice president joe biden. i spoke to a local congresswoman here dina titus. she had what turned out to be a little bit of a shot at vice president biden and whether he's getting in. listen to this. >> i don't think he will.
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i really love vice president biden. you i hope he doesn't run. i think he ought to just end his career on a high note like being ambassador to paris or something. >> reporter: in the clinton administration. >> exactly. >> reporter: she'd rather see him get a nice little job in a new clinton administration. sounds just a wee bit condescending. we have a job for you, the ambassador to france. don't run against hillary clinton. >> we'll have to see what happens xs ed henry, thank you. with the debate tomorrow night, there's already a lot of talk today about that one person who won't be there. but may end up running, vp joe biden. he's spending the holiday weekend with his family reportedly discussing whether to throw his hat in the ring or not. seep yore political correspondent mike owe manuel in wilmington, delaware. mike, any signed of movement at his home? are you watching closely? >> reporter: well, gretchen, we observed a 15-passenger van pulling into the biden property a short time ago. otherwise a pretty peaceful day
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after an active weekend. we saw vice president yoe biden going to a flag football game, doing some golfing, cheering on a cross-country meet. on "60 minutes," president obama praised biden saying he'll go down as one of the finest vps in history. >> i think he has done great work. i don't think there's any politician at a national level that has not thought about being the president and if you're sitting right next to the president in every meeting, wrestling with these issues, i'm sure that for him he's saying to himself, i could do a really good job. >> reporter: there is no doubt that vice president joe biden believes he has the right experience to run for president. the question has been whether he and his family are up for the grind after losing his son earlier this year. >> of course. big huge decision. so what are the other democratic candidates saying about joe biden? >> reporter: gretchen, they sound respectful and they're wondering what the impact will
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be if he jumps into the race. hillary clinton saying if he gets in she will continue to speak positively about biden and that she'll put forward her platform and democratic voters will decide. here's vermont senator bernie sanders on the question of biden 2016. >> it's -- i suppose you could argue that more voices, more ideas add to the debate. >> you don't seem that convinced. >> i mean, it's a very personal decision. it's a big decision that joe biden has to make. i'm sure he has his advisers telling him what to do. he doesn't need my advice. >> reporter: sanders does not sound totally comfortable with the question of vice president biden jumping into the race. no doubt he would have an impact on the race for the democratic nomination. >> ah, if only we knew, right, mike? maybe you'll find out while you're there. time for our 2016 presidential power index where we look at who's up and who's down on the race for the white house. gop side, ted cruz and marco rubio and donald trump and carly
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fiorina are among the big movers. chris stirewalt joins ne now. hard to believe here we are again talking about another politic thing, you've got the power index every monday. let's kick it off with the top four. >> well, look, marco rubio is not in the same race with tonld trump. he's not in the same race with ted cruz. he's not in the same race with ben carson yet. he hopes to be. he hopes to be at the end to be the last person from the establishment still standing. he hopes to be the person who has a broad enough appeal in the republican party to go the distance. he's competing right now with jeb bush first and foremost but also people like john kasich and chris christie to win that part of the party he can go the distance against somebody from the other side of the divide in the gop. >> okay. >> and marco rubio is doing what he needs to do to take advantage of what has been the ferrairy
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colossal failures of jeb bush or at least the misexpectations of xweb bush's campaign. >> you originally for weeks, again, this is a conglomeration of all the factors, not necessarily who's leading in the poll at this particular time, but your power index had jeb bush number one for a long time. now let's take a look. he has slipped to number five and you actually have ben carson number six, john kasich, chris christie rounding out the top eight then. complain how that all fits together. >> so jeb bush was number one forever because he had all of the money, he had more than -- his super pac had raised more than $100 million, had the support of the republican establishment. usually what happens is the establishment chooses early, the insurgency chooses late, better funded establishment candidate beelts the insurgent. that's what we saw in 2012 with mitt romney, what we saw in 2008 with john mccain. that's how it goes. that's the chalk and that's what we expected to see again this
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time. but not only is the resistance to jeb bush proven greater than we expected but jeb bush's popularity as a candidate has proven worse than we expected. in fact, he is the least popular top tier republican knd candida candidate. he is a minus 6. the voters have broadly rejected him. he has a very limited amount of time, we're talking a month or six weeks or so, before donors and voters are going to say, you know what? you're not going to make it. and that would redound to marco rubio's benefit in a tremendous way. >> very interesting. on the radar, you have bobby jindal, rick santorum, lindsey graham and george pataki. out of those four, who do you want to comment on? >> look, i'll just tell you this, bobby jindal is on the cusp right now. he could make it in iowa. it's possible. but rand paul has reasserted himself to get back into the top ten. rand pauld has reis aerted himself with libertarian voters that he is following his father's path and embracing that notion. jindal has to create something. it will be tough for him, but
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there is, of anybody in that roster, he's the guy that might be able to do something surprising in iowa. >> very interesting, have a great week. see you soon. >> you too. millions of americans about to get an unpleasant shock this week. for the third time in 40 years, there will be no increase in social security checks. why has it only happened under president obama's leadership? and will it keep happening? plus, a victim of domestic abuse too traumatized to show up to testify against her attacker in court. the judge having none of it, first derating her, then putting her behind bars. now that victim is speaking out. >> why didn't you show up to court? >> my anxiety. >> you think you have anxiety now? you haven't even seen anxiety. pk
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welcome back to the real story. a domestic abuse victim doesn't show up in court. the victim says her anxiety and fear from the alleged attack held her back. but as you may recall, the judge less than sympathetic. >> i hearby find you in contempt of court. i sentence you to three days in the county jail. turn around. >> i'll do anything, judge. please. >> you should have showed up. >> i have a 1-year-old son i'm trying to take care of by myself. i'm begging you. please. >> i've issued my order. >> the victim ends up being sentenced to three days in jail for missing her court date. but she is now speaking out. let's get the real story. i actually felt like a lot of
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people got it wrong last week because they don't understand domestic violence. >> domestic violence, rape cases. women will not come forward if they have to take the stand and stare into the face of the person that raped them, abused them. they will not even report this. gretchen, this goes back so many years for me when i prosecuted these case cases. i would always listen to the victim. i can get you a case. i can still prosecute the case without you taking the stand. there was progress. >> this judge by the fact she's also a woman just really upset my. >> right. >> when i worked in dallas a long time ago there was a female prosecutor there who started this law where you didn't -- the victim didn't have to show up. >> comes up from 1987 a california case, you're exactly right. prosecutor dire from that it went on to massachusetts, baltimore, all these other states. look, you can be there in the courtroom. we will take a video deposition of you. so we meet that sixth amendment right to confrontation in our
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constitution but you don't have to be there. that goes back to 1987 they were doing that. >> there's tons of other cases where people don't show up. >> exactly. rape cases. let's talk about a murder case where you don't have a body, right? prosecution can go after a defendant on a murder case without even a body there. so why can't they prosecute a rape case -- or domestic violence case without this victim who is afraid of being victimized again? it just boggles the mind. >> you hear the emotion. i mean, on the one hand, you know, if you're looking at the letter of the law, okay, she was subpoenaed. >> yes. >> she didn't show up. >> correct. >> but you practice law or did for a long time. sometimes you have to figure out different ways, right? >> judges have discretion on this. she could have held her and say, you have to pay a fine of $1 and i'm holding you in contempt. you pay that fine before you leave. that's discretion. the judge could have done that instead of sentencing this woman who has a 1-year-old baby who
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whose life was threatened -- >> the number one reason they don't show up is because they know what may happen when they go back home. >> exactly. the guy gets, what, six months, 15 months. >> then he's out. >> then he's out. and no matter how many restraining orders you have, no matter what you have, no matter how many locks you have on your door, that guy can still get in and threaten you and your son. i've seen it time and time again. >> i wish this judge had a better education on domestic violence. >> i agree. >> but she didn't in this case. thank you. >> thank you. time now for my take. when the story of the florida victim of domestic violence broke last week i found myself going back to what i had learned about this issue when i worked for a local tv station in dallas earlier in my career. there i did a 30-part series on domestic violence. something that had never been done before. and i learned a lot. i too struggled with the issue of, why don't the victims just leave their abusers? and why do they always seem to go back to them? and before i was educated, i may not have seen the florida case
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of the judge berating the victim and throwing her in jail because she didn't show up to court as a big deal. well, the truth is, many victims never testify because they know if they do they could end up dead as a result. in fact, this victim in an interview after said this, it seemed easier to go to jail than testify against him. and then the crushing blow saying, if it happens again, i most likely won't call police now. just one judge's actions may have set back the progress of combat ick domestic violence by decades. you can always get my take on facebook and fox news.com. you think if your wallet is full you'd be happier and feel better, right? it turns out economic hardship may actually be good for your health. we're going to give you the real story on that. plus, it was a super controversial call. did you see it? dodgers infielder chase utley suspended over this play breaking the other player's leg
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with his slide into second. that bridges us to our question of the day. should chase utley be punished for his slide into second? and if so, how? should he be able to play tonight? tweet me. i can hardly wait to read your comments at the end of the show. before earning enough cash back from bank of america to take their act to the next level... before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time... 2% back at the grocery store... and 3% back on gas... vince of the flying branzinos got a bankamericard cash rewards credit card, because he may earn his living jumping through hoops, but he'd rather not earn cash back that way. that's the spectacle of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you. as a firefighter approaching a fire i had to confine it, contain it and attack it.
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here's that controversial sports story. l.a. dodgers infielder chase utley may get to play against the new york mets tonight. maybe. it's pending a decision on his appeal of his suspension for that nasty collision in game two of their divisional series. officials said they want more time to review it now. utley's eligible to play while his appeal is pending. we'll see. here's the play. look what happens. banned from games three and four
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after sliding into mets shortstop ruben tejada in the seventh inning saturday. umpires ruled it legal on the field, but then league discipline czar joe torre reversed that. tejada suffered a broken leg and is out for the series. who knows after that. utley agent said, quote, chase did what all players are taught to do, break up the double play. chase feels terrible about the injury and everyone who knows him knows he would never intentionally hurt anybody. so what do you think about that story? tweet me. read your comments at the end of the show. unfortunately, bad news for millions of social security resip gents. word now that over 70 million of them will receive absolutely no cost of living increase this year. the decision affects 4 million disabled vets and has happened only twice before in the last 40 years. both times under president obama. charles payne is here to explain what's going on. >> it's the government's
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interpretation if you will of inflation. and it's just crazy, gretchen, that the only thing you can say perhaps is deflation obviously would be gasoline. gasoline prices have come down adramatically. but the focus of the cpi, the consumer index in urban areas, has skewed completely how expensive it is to live day to day particularly for someone on a fixed income, someone in an environment with a federal reserve has knocked interest rates down to the point you get no money for saving money anymore. we have boxed in retirees and elderly to the point where it is absolutely nuts. rent has gone through the roof. food is up, whether you're eat at home or away. education, they're not being educated but certainly they try to help with their kids or grandkids. every aspect of life, the costs have gone through the roof. not just up a little built. through the roof. the idea they won't give any sort of adjustment is really frightening. >> let's also look at this because there's an eye-opening study showing times of economic
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hardship may actually be good for your health. researchers finding fewer deaths due to car accidents, cancer, and other diseases during tough times and that suicide rates remained steady. so the conclusion? people's physical health may actually improve in times of economic crises. what do you think of this? >> this is a misnomer. if we went along with this theory, we should be aiming to beat north korea. we would have zero car accidents. listen, people haven't driven. they don't drive in recessions so you don't get in cars so you don't have auto accidents. it's less likely to happen. here's an interesting tidbit for you. do you know right now we're on pace to see cigarette sales up for the first time year over year since 2006? >> really? >> yes. because people are taking their savings from gas and buying cigarettes with them. when they have extra cash in their pocket, we sort of go back to the sinful things we normally used to do. >> all right. very interesting factoid from charles.
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now, peo when you give your picks. >> right. >> on "the real story." so what are you telling people to buy? >> i have two names that would be perfect for your audience, electronic arts, the gaming industry is absolutely phenomenal. killing it in earnings, they have games people love. and amazon. a lot of people are going to say, it's an expensive stock, like $530 a share. don't worry about that. even if you can buy one share, think a year from now it will be at least $700. they're killing everyone including google. amazon has proven itself. it is amazing. don't let the share price scare you. if you want to be an investor, buy stock, hold me to this. we'll come back a year from now and talk about it. i think people will thank me. >> very interesting. i'll put those on facebook so people can be reminded about charles' picks. we'll watch you tonight. >> cool. >> thank you. just over 24 hours away from the first democratic presidential debate, the vp fueling mad speculation. will he or won't he actually run for president? and turn the democratic race on its head. plus, classes resuming at
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the oregon community college, site of that deadly rampage nearly two weeks ago. as people try to resume their normal lives, how do we continue to keep our schools safe? we're going to talk to a teacher who survived the newtown school shooting. plus, just two aleve can last all day. you'd need 6 tylenol arthritis to do that. aleve. all day strong. only glucerna has carbsteady, diabetes, steady is exciting. clinically proven to help minimize blood sugar spikes. so you stay steady ahead.
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bottom of the hour, quick check of your headlines for monday. fox news learning that a u.s. transport plane air dropped 50 tons of arms to the syrian kurds said to be part of the new strategy in the battle to try to
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defeat isis. "washington post" denouncing the conviction of its reporter in iran describing the jason rezaian verdict on espionage charges as outrageous injustice. investigators say a deadly police shooting in memphis this weekend seemed to have started as an altercation between the off-duty officer and his neighbor. back to politics now. all eyes on joe biden, whether or not he's going to actually make a run for president. reporters following him in delaware over the weekend asking him when he will finally announce his decision. biden says he won't participate in the first democratic debate tomorrow night, but organizers say he has an open invitation to participate just in case he changes his mind. so they're setting aside an extra podium. time to bring in our political panel, eboni williams and mercedes schlapp. ladies, there's going to be this empty podium standing there. are they really going to do that? that sounds weird to me. >> i think it sounds awkward.
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i'm with you. but i see the incentive to do it because it makes it that much more interesting. certainly cnn would love it if joe biden were to participate. but there's no upside for that from his perspective, right? this is his opportunity to see hillary clinton's playbook. she makes her opening statement and he gets to take notes, doesn't have to be part of the playing field. this is the well-played decision from the vice president. >> mercedes, i'm sure cnn would love love love love love to have joe biden get into it because the ratings are certainly not going to go gangbusters with the current field are they? or am i wrong? >> no. when you think about it, when you had the hillary clinton versus barack obama debate back in 2008, it was only 8 million viewers. can you believe that? compared to what fox had over 24 million viewers with donald trump there. so again, there is this hunger and this need for a real debate on the democratic side. not only does cnn want it, but i think you want democrats watching them battle it out
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between vice president biden and hillary clinton because i have to tell you it could be a real sleeper for two hours, and it could be a real drag tomorrow night if they don't make it that interesting. >> and of course donald trump says because he's not in it nobody is going to watch. >> that's right. >> i can't believe he said that. >> i know. shocking. the only thing is that some people are saying that actually hillary clinton will have to answer more questions she has throughout the whole campaign, eboni. >> absolutely. benghazi will come up, the e-mails will come up again. if her camp has been any kind of smart about it, they will have a fuller answer for that. nobody really is going to be satisfied with, this is a partisan attack on her, anymore. maybe it is. i'm sure it is partly partisan, of course it is. but that does not provide the explanation that the families of the victims in benghazi need and deserve to hear. this is an opportunity actually for her to give a broader explanation around that. >> meantime, the pressure it mounting now on republican paul ryan as other republicans launching full-court press urging the wisconsin congressman
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to enter the race for house speaker. mercedes, his spokesperson has come out today and said, look, it will be at least a week before we're going to have any kind of decision. >> that's right. >> what do you think is going on behind closed doors? >> guess what, he can take his time. but this is the hot potato. i call it the speaker's race the hot potato game. they are passing this potato and nobody wants it. so i think for paul ryan he's made this decision where he does have time on his hands. why? he is a consensus candidate. he can bring conservatives and moderates together. but at the same time he doesn't really want the job. think about it. whoever becomes speaker, that is not a career enhancing move. that is a career ending move. as for paul ryan, he's always had his eyes to maybe running for president one day. he's very happy with his current role. plus, believe it or not, he's trying to balance work with family. when you're speaker, you're on the road over 200 days a year. >> i think it might actually be the latter more than anything. do you agree it's an ending
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career move? >> i couldn't agree with mercedes anymore. she's spot-on about this. this role will only benefit someone who's deciding that the speakership is their complete political ambition. also someone who is trying to raise their profile. paul ryan doesn't need to do that. it's been done for him. somebody like webster? many people don't know who that is. i can understand why it's attractive to him. but paul ryan doesn't need it. >> ladies, thanks for the discussion. see you next week. >> thank you. >> thank you. so classes just resuming at the oregon community college that was the scene of a deadly shooting rampage earlier this month. the state's governor welcoming the students back. praising the community's strength and resilience in the 11 days since that tragedy, though, there have already been three other school shootings across the country, two with deadly results. all raising the big question, how do we keep our schools safe? joining me now, caitlin roy teacher who survived the newtown massacre and author of "choosing
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hope." so great to see you in person. thank you for being here. >> thank you. >> i have to ask you about these other shootings that have happened. i hate to even use the word "common place," but here we are talking about two or three of them that happened just last friday after the oregon situation. what do you think about it? >> it's awful. you know, it's a pain that i know all too well. my heart goes out to each of their communities, to the victims, to those who have lost. i'm grateful that in our country the conversation is being had. i mean, gun sense, gun safety, gun smarts. something needs to be done. my expertise, background is in education. that's what my training is in. that's what i can speak to. i am sure grateful somebody is -- >> you were a teacher of a first grade class at the sandy hook shootings more than two years ago. >> yes. >> now we are having this conversation. and one of the candidates for president donald trump believes that teachers should be armed. listen to this real quick. >> frankly, i've said it, if they had guns, if the teacher
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had a gun and they would know how to use it, in that classroom, you would have had a lot better situation than it turned out in oregon. >> so he was talking about oregon. do you agree or disagree with that? >> my training as a teacher is my master's, two honorary doctorates. i would not want the responsibility as a teacher to use a gun, know how to use a gun. my responsibility is my kids, their best interest, their safety. >> so on that day, you've written a book about it now, "choosing hope," you kept your kids safe. what did you do? >> well, it's my memoir. it's not just about that day. it's about so much more. but on that particular day we were the first classroom. we were sitting ducks. our only chance of survival was hiding. so we had to hide in an extremely small 3 by 4 foot bathroom and wait and pray that the terror passed. and it did. >> and you kept them safe. i know now that you have decided to leave the classroom and to choose hope and start a new project. what is that? >> a nonprofit organization
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classes for classes nationally based k-8 student kz get involved. we connect classrooms to care. to learn first hand it's a far better gift to give than to receive. but i'm a teacher through and through. just because i don't have one classroom i have many. i'll always be a teacher. >> when you look back on that horrific day, do you stay in touch with any of those kids that you helped? >> absolutely. their families. i'm so incredibly grateful to be in touch with my students, their family l families. i saw a majority of them in december, a few of them weeks ago. it's so important to me. i'm just so grateful their families allow me to be part of their lives now they're in fourth grade. they're so big. >> i want people to check out your book "choosing hope." you were so heroic on that day and kept those kids safe. unfortunately we have to keep reporting about this happening at other schools. kaitlyn, thank you. >> thank you. time to check in with shepard smith reporting live from the fox news deck. >> cyber weapons are the new
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nukes, powerful enough to cripple nations and their economies. unlike expensive nuclear weapons, all a nation needs to wreak havoc around the world is an internet connection. in fact, more than 60 nations are right now developing cyber weapons according to the "wall street journal" investigation. and the stakes are dangerously high. the journal is now reporting some countries are looking into knocking out power grids, crippling airline networks, disabling radar networks, even making money vanish from bank accounts. we'll explain all of the biggest threats here and what the united states is reportedly doing to keep us safe top of the hour "shepard smith reporting" see you then. >> thank you. we have new information on a deadly helicopter crash in afghanistan as we now learn that two u.s. service members, two british service members and a french civilian contractor have all been killed. the chopper crash landing at the headquarters of operation resolute support, which is training afghan security forces in kabul. five other coalition members were injured in that crash. and today we remember a tragic moment in the war on
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terror. today marks 15 years since the attack on the uss cole, the destroyer was refuelling in the port city of aiden in yemen when two suicide bombers as you recall steered their boat noose that shim. 17 sailors killed, 39 others injured. that explosion tearing a 40 by 40 foot hole in the cole. afterwards the crew had to remain on the ship for three weeks in hot and dangerous conditions. the terror attack shocked america and caused the navy to change how it protected its ships in foreign ports. today of course yemen is home to one of al qaeda's most dangerous affiliates, the but the full meaning of the attack on the "cole" became clear less than a year later on 9/11, when terrorists from the same group attacked the homeland, changing our course of history. it is a critical benchmark every presidential candidate wants to do well in. i'm talking about iowa. we've looked at the polling numbers through the years and we found some fascinating and
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surprising information about how accurate the hawkeye state is in predicting the next president. what might they know before the rest of the nation finds out? plus, it's the latest must-have course on one new england campus. would you sign up for a college course titled deflategate? what students can expect to learn from that super bowl playoff scandal when we come back.
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time to check out what america is clicking on today. deflaitegate a course at the university of new hampshire. a law professor is teaching students about all the aspects of the nfl scandal and booking a slew of guest speakers including lawyers from the nfl and the players association and sports journalists. the selfie takes a turn as the holiday inn in california allowed folks to snap a pic and have it printed on a pancake.
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the selfie stack situation heading across the u.s. on a nine-city tour. the wife of nik wallenda wowing the crowd at a charlotte motor speedway by hanging from a helicopter by her feet. she did it all without a harness or safety device. let's go back to politics now because some new polls are out and they're showing where the candidates stand in the important state of iowa. the site of the nation's first presidential caucus. donald trump still leading in the republican race with 24%, dr. ben carson right on his heels, 19% supporting him. on the democratic side, hillary clinton ahead of bernie sanders also by five points. but do these polls really reflect what's happening on the ground? my next guest very skeptical of that, steve gase is a radio talk show host and my guest. steve, great to have you on the real story. what is the real story, why are you skeptical? >> well, for six months we were told scott walker was the clear front-runner in iowa. he didn't even make it to
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trick-or-treat night in the campaign he's out. if you look at what's actually happening on the ground here, the two organizations on the republican side that are way ahead of everybody else are ted cruz and ben carson and it's not even close. >> why? >> and then the democrat side -- because if you look at the depth of support they have, if you look at statewide, who those supporters are, anybody can put names on a page, but are these real activists that have shown they bring people with them to caucus night? that's why there's so many surprises because iowa is based on organization because it's a caucus state. and i think hillary clinton is in trouble here like she was eight years ago. i think on the democrats side if the caucuses were today, bernie sanders would win and i don't think it would be close. i think he'd win by three or four points at least. >> very interesting. now, what you say actually has proven to be true when you go back and look at polls. so if you go back to 2007, on the democratic side with obama and hillary clinton then, it's fascinating to look at. when you ask iowa caucus voters
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who they liked, they ended up being much more accurate than the general national polls that had mrs. clinton way ahead of obama, the same true on the republican side where the national polls said giuliani was running away with it and yet the iowa caucus voters in their polls said that in fact it was mitt romney. so should we be paying more attention to what the iowa people are saying? >> i know the saying is that new hampshire picks presidents and iowa picks corn. but it's actually paul saung is, hillary clinton, pat buchanan all won primaries. iowa has picked the last four general election winners and if you win iowa you go on to be a major nominee's for president about 75% of the time. i think it's because of how you have to win iowa. you cannot come in here with a batch of consultants and a whole bunch of money and a war chest, drop it on a couple of major media outlets and buy it with a primary like ads. you have to engage people whether it's republicans or
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democrats. they have to get to know you as a person often on a first name basis. that gives us a chance to see the sincerity of the candidates that maybe you don't get necessarily in a big money state. >> i'm from minnesota so i totally understand the midwest and the sincerity aspect of it and really meeting people in the face-to-face setting but look on the republican side. you had rick santorum winning that last time. obviously he was not the gop nominee. so is iowa a better predictor of democrats? >> not necessarily. the republicans have never nominated a candidate ever that did not finish in the top three in iowa. so iowans don't necessarily view ourselves to be kingmakers. we're probably way too nice for that. we sort of view ourselves as maybe a win knowing fort. we look at the field and say, here are two or three really good candidates the rest of the nation gets to decide fwr there. >> interesting. you say on the ground now it's cruz and carson on the gop side and it's bernie sanders on the dems side. very interesting, steve. we'll see if your predictions
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pan out. thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. so an alaskan airlines flight makes an emergency landing but what actually prompted it? it involved a credit card, but i bet you haven't heard this story until now. meantime, the trouble seems to be over for another airline. why southwest had to hand-write boarding passes. what the heck happened there? >> handwritten boarding passes first time ever. and i travel a lot. i'm hoping that sometime before the end of the night we're going to get home. sure, tv has evolved over the years.
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it's gotten squarer. brighter. bigger. thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. a bizarre story. seattle, bound plane forced to make an emergency landing after there was smoke onboard. how it happened is freaky. sparked from a credit card reader. the flight stop michigan buffalo after departing from new jersey,
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trace gallagher is following the story. >> reporter: one of the away credit card readers had a battery that started melt nell back galley. the airlines said there were no flames. flight attend adapts used a fire stepping -- extinguisher to douse it and when you're on an airplane the fire this the worst word to hear the and faa requires every fire to be aggressively pursued. when there is any sign of smoke in the cabin or the cockpit, some pilots will put on flight masks and smoke goggles. it's unclear if that happened on this flight. the pilot did make an emergency landing in buffalo, which is standard operating procedure, because if there had been a fire, it can take passenger jet ten minutemore to get on the ground. when the 737 landed in buffalo,
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fire crews came onboard to milwaukee sure the fire was out. the credit card reader is being kept by fire investigators so they can check it out to make sure it doesn't have a malfunction that could affect credit card machines on other aircraft there where are no injuries among the 184 passengers and crew. that's the good thus. the bad news the passenger' flight to seattle won't leave buffalo for maybe another two, two and a half hours, which moons they'll be at least eight or nine hours behind schedule. >> a big bummerment all right. trace, thank you so much. some lingering delays at sweater airlines southwestern after a massive glitch. here lines in l.a. this after passengers who arrived at the terminal without a boarding pass had to have it written out by hand. that was thanks to the system-wide glitch. the failure led to more than 450 delays. foul play not suspected. the airline says it's trying to figure out exactly what
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happened. a new kind of therapy for kids who lost a parent in military and the role horses are playing in making them feel better. >> our younger kids get to ride on ponies. there's a setter element of trust that is involved in that. and for children when they have lost a loved one, trust is something they lose and it's hard to re-establish. heart health's important...
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so you may take an omega-3 supplement ...but it's the ingredients inside that really matter for heart health. bayer pro ultra omega-3 has two times the concentration of epa and dha as the leading omega-3 supplement. bayer pro ultra omega-3. we danced in a german dance group. i wore lederhosen.man. when i first got on ancestry
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i was really surprised that i wasn't finding all of these germans in my tree. i decided to have my dna tested through ancestry dna. the big surprise was we're not german at all. 52% of my dna comes from scotland and ireland. so, i traded in my lederhosen for a kilt. ancestry has many paths to discovering your story. get started for free at ancestry.com.
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time for some good news. a program helping kids with military family members cope with stress and they're using some furry friends. it pairs kids with a mentor and lets them spend the day with a horse. >> i've had a lot of kids ride today for the first time. they're kind of scared at first and then when they set down it's a huge smile and a rush of joy to their faces. >> seeing him come out of his shell has been phenomenal. he is going to go with his mom and have a good time and share
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his stories with her. >> the tragedy assistance program for survivors putting on the event. specializes in helping kids who lost military family members to suicide. >> move over, wolfman jack. hundreds of people breaking the world record for the biggest group howling at the moon. this happened the halloween theme park in england. a lot of you sounding off about a decision into suspend chase it lee of the nasty collision with new york mets shortstop ruben tejada. the "associated press" reporting the hearing will not be held today which will allow utley to play in game. the he will fails the mets matt harf you who has a 95 purpose fast ball so watch out. bill tweets, yes, the suspension was appropriate. james says this is good, hard
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baseball. he shouldn't be fined at all. and scott tweets he should watch out for retaliation pitch every time he comes up to bat. thank you for writing and, yes, i'd watch out if your last name is utley. here's shep. >> what is joe biden going to do? the vice-president met with family and tries to decide whether to jump into the race. ahead the impact he could have on hillary clinton and bernie sanders, and what to expect in tomorrow residents first democratic debate. a new poll shows movement in the republican race as the candidates try to win over key votersful also, why your government benefits may not go up at all next year. and we're not talking just social security. let's get to it. good monday from the fox news deck. hillary clinton is on top of the democratic pack still, with or without the vice-president in the race. that's the finding from a new cbs news survey. one day before the first

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